🔗 Share this article

Each time the wind flows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for disruptions.

That is when giant white balloons are sent across the border, with containers of contraband goods dangling beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this smuggling operation has caused Lithuania's primary air hub into suspension 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the airspace was shut down entirely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the officials are certain they are confronting something far more hostile than simple smugglers.

They state the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an example of covert aggression by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

Government Action

The Lithuanian administration has instituted an emergency situation.

While balloons have been used by smugglers before, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.

"Of course it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen more than once how Belarus instrumentalises criminal networks to influence bordering nations," a government minister stated.

The official suggested the balloons are sent from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to make a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's border region.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the military and security field."

Border Vigilance

Now, every night, security forces deploy in the border zone.

The balloons are most common under cover of darkness.

Units establish temporary roadblocks on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has offered a substantial reward to any company that can devise how to intercept them.

In the meantime, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new criminal charges for aviation disruption should also act as a deterrent.

Strategic Motives

The border itself is now defined by a high security barrier, with security wire and concrete blocks.

This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as hostile.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently attributed the activity to "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, provoking a deliberate crisis.

"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing sanctions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as legitimate following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Public Discontent

Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"I am convinced this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words hint that another aim of such covert tactics – sowing discontent – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of Nato: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the fundamental challenges."