Past this Ceremony of Putin's New Delhi Visit: The India-Russia Relationship That Has Frayed.

The diplomatic language and visuals from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's most recent official trip to India hinted at a strong bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a hug, and the leaders took a car journey, mirroring a familiar diplomatic gesture. In his remarks, Modi called Putin as "a dear friend" and described the Indo-Russian bond as a "guiding star", built on "shared respect and profound trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This marked Putin's tenth visit to India during his quarter-century tenure and his twentieth meeting with Modi after the latter took office in 2014.

A Gap Separating Pageantry and Substance

Nevertheless, a clear disconnect persists between the symbolism and the actual content of this alliance. Although Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are in fact purchasing a reduced amount of Russian oil due to international tariffs and sanctions. The two nations signed numerous agreements covering migration, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and academic exchanges. However, expected revelations on significant military contracts did not come to pass. India has abstained from any substantial defence agreements with Russia following the 2022 offensive of Ukraine, a situation fueled by holdups in shipments of equipment and components as Moscow focuses on its own wartime requirements.

A Relationship With Diminished Geopolitical Influence

This all indicates that the Indo-Russian relationship no longer carries the identical strategic heft it once did. During the Cold War, India maintained special trade terms and market access to the USSR and its satellite states. This unique alliance reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded before a war with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. Although both countries have sought to preserve a appearance of this close bond through a "special and privileged" alliance announced in 2010, the truth is that their interaction lacks the same significance as New Delhi has substantially strengthened relations with the West.

Diversification and Underlying Tensions

New Delhi is unlikely to cut its important links with Moscow. But, as external coercion mounts on India to reduce its imports of Russian oil, both nations are attempting to diversify the partnership into other areas. During Putin's visit, they unveiled an economic cooperation programme extending until 2030, aiming to make their relations "more diversified, equitable and sustainable". This involves enhancing entry for Indian goods to address a trade imbalance strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Cooperation between the two covers several strategically important fields – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and food security.

Sentimental Affinity and Seen Reliability

At an ideological plane, a high degree of closeness with Russia persists, particularly among senior generations of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's pivotal support during the earlier era. This has translated into a certain level of sympathy for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During recent tensions between India and the US, in which American officials have made critical remarks about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a more reliable partner.

The challenge, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The extensive declaration released during Putin's visit made no reference to Ukraine, even though it ironically referred to the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's often-repeated assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the war have been minimal.

Navigating the Circle: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Tightrope

This situation does not belie the inherent complexities in India's international stance. The country is poised to conclude a trade deal with the EU, following a comparable agreement with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada announced a trilateral technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to strengthen people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.

How will India square this complex equation? New Delhi will be banking that ongoing peace negotiations will bear fruit, leading to a cessation of hostilities and the removal of a major thorn in its relations with the Western bloc. But, even if a peace deal is achieved, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, critical examination of the Indo-Russian relationship will undoubtedly persist in Western governments.